New Zealand vs South Africa 1st Test: Prediction and Betting Tips

New Zealand enter the series as favourites on home soil. They are currently second in the ICC Test rankings with the Proteas in fifth. But they have never beaten South Africa in 16 previous Test series. In fact, they’ve and only ever claimed one home Test match win, in a 1-1 home draw in 2004.

The Black Caps could only scrape a 1-1 series draw against Bangladesh at the end of 2021. That got their WTC defence off to a stuttering start. Whereas South Africa are buoyant after beating India 2-1 last month. It’s a terrific series ahead.

Key Stats

• New Zealand has never won a Test series against South Africa
• Only three of nine completed Tests at this venue have not seen a batter scoring a century
• The average opening partnership at this ground is 32.88
• New Zealand have claimed a first innings lead in two of the last three Tests against the Proteas
• South Africa have had the lowest first innings opening partnership in four of their last five Tests, with a best of just 14
• Historically, the highest scoring innings of Test matches at Hagley Oval is the first innings. The average total is 308. Winning the toss and batting well could prove decisive

World Test Champions for a reason

A 2-0 series win over Pakistan in 2016 began a remarkable run of Test form for the Black Caps. Since then, they have won 12 of 17 Test series played. A 3-0 loss in Australia was the only disappointment.

The Kiwis lost the first Test against Bangladesh by eight wickets. They bounced back strongly to dismiss the Tigers for 126 and 278 to level the series, winning by an innings and 117 runs. Defeat in the first Test was their first at home since 2017. That loss came when South Africa won by eight wickets ending a run of 18 home Tests without defeat.

Kiwis without big names

New Zealand have never won a Test series against South Africa. They are without injured captain Kane Williamson (elbow) and the recently retired Ross Taylor. It has been 14 years since the Kiwis started a Test without at least one of their names on the scorecard. The pair are the top two all-time Test run scorers for their country. They are the talisman, often digging their side out of trouble. It will be a tough battle against South Africa’s strong pace attack without them.

Trent Boult misses the series as he awaits the birth of his first child. The left-armer took 5/43 in Bangladesh’s first innings and will be missed. He is replaced in the squad by Matt Henry.

Gary Stead, the Kiwis’ head coach, appreciates the series will be tightly contested. He said: “They’re obviously a quality side, capable of beating India in South Africa. They’ve got classy players throughout and while they lack some experience you certainly can’t underestimate them.”

Tom Latham to go big again?

Tom Latham will lead a New Zealand side that has lost five of the last nine Tests without Kane Williamson. Latham stood tall in the most recent win over Bangladesh with a massive 252. Unflappable of nature, Latham is stepping up for his country as a leader and batter. He is often not spoken about as a Test and a price of 5.00 on him to score a century is too appealing to ignore.

South Africa fresh from India victory

The Proteas completed a Test and one-day home series double against India, which sees them arrive in confident mood. They came from behind to beat the world no.1 Test side 2-1 last month and was their third series win in their last four series played. It’s a change of fortunes for a South African side that had lost four of the five series prior to that.

Dean Elgar has grown into his captaincy role, averaging 39 across his last six innings, but the loss of Keegan Petersen (Covid-19) is a blow.

Not ideal Proteas’ preparation

The tourists have had to contend with strict quarantine rules upon arrival with scheduled allocated hours given for training and gym use. The four walls of the individual’s hotel room have provided the bulk of preparation. It remains to be seen whether that hampers their hopes.

“We are aware of their ability,” South African captain Dean Elgar admitted. “We respect that and it’s going to be a great test for us to match ourselves and compare ourselves with a team that’s playing at their peak.

“With respect, New Zealand’s attack are a little bit down on pace compared to the Indian attack,” Elgar added. “In saying that, they execute their skills perfectly in their conditions.”

Kagison Rabada to dominate at the Hagley Oval, Christchurch

Both Tests will be played at the Hagley Oval, which tends to be a fast bowlers delight. 254 of the 278 wickets to fall at the ground have gone to fast bowlers.

Kagiso Rabada will lead the South African attack and has claimed at least two wickets in each of his last nine innings. Five times in that run has he taken three-plus scalps and, if he gets it right, could be a potent force.

Rabada is priced at 3.00 to be top South Africa bowler, which is on the skinny side, but worth taking.

South Africa have six pace bowlers in their squad with Rabada likely to be joined by Lungi Ngidi and Marco Jansen in the first Test. Duanne Olivier, Lutho Sipamla and Glenton Stuurman provide able back-up.

Who wins the first Test?

This is a great series with two sides that it is tough to separate on paper. The Kiwis home advantage may make the difference, but as a punter the outright markets might be worth side-stepping. There is plenty of value elsewhere.

New Zealand Test squad: Tom Latham (captain), Tom Blundell (wk), Devon Conway, Colin de Grandhomme, Cam Fletcher (wk), Matt Henry, Kyle Jamieson, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Rachin Ravindra, Hamish Rutherford, Tim Southee, Blair Tickner, Neil Wagner, Will Young.

South Africa Test squad: Dean Elgar (captain), Temba Bavuma (vice-0captain), Sarel Erwee, Simon Harmer, Marco Jansen, Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier, Keegan Petersen, Kagiso Rabada, Ryan Rickelton, Lutho Sipamla, Glenton Stuurman, Rassie van der Dussen, Kyle Verreynne.