India vs Sri Lanka 1st Test: Prediction and Betting Tips

04:00, 04 mar 2022
04:00, 04 mar 2022
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India host Sri Lanka in a two-match Test series as the first Test begins on 4 March in Mohali. Rohit Sharma begins his stint as India Test captain and Virat Kohli makes his 100th Test appearance. Read our free predictions and betting picks for the game here…
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Key Stats

  • India unbeaten in their last 14 Test series at home (dating back to 2013)
  • In those 14 Test series, India have lost only two Test matches
  • In home Tests, India have won 11 against Sri Lanka and nine matches have been drawn
  • If India wins the first Test, they will become the only side to win 21 Tests vs Sri Lanka
  • The hosts are unbeaten against Sri Lanka in 2021, having won the T20I series 3-0

Head-to-Head records – India vs Sri Lanka

The two countries last met in late 2017 when India won the Test series 1-0. In 44 Tests, India have won 20, Sri Lanka seven and 17 were drawn. Sri Lanka last won a Test series against India in 2008.

India are unbeaten at home against Sri Lanka in Test cricket. They have won 11 matches at home, while nine have been drawn.

In 16 Test series in total, India have won nine, Sri Lanka three and four series ended drawn.
There have been eight series played when Sri Lanka have toured India, with the hosts winning six series and two have ended level.

Punjab Cricket Stadium in Mohali

The first Test was expected to be played without spectators. But BCCI recently announced that 50% capacity will be allowed in to watch Virat Kohli’s milestone 100th Test.

Sri Lanka last played in Mohali in a drawn Test in 1997. Only Virat Kohli, Ravindra Jadeja, Ravichandran Ashwin, Mohammad Shami, and Jayant Yadav have played a Test at the ground previously.

In 13 Tests played at the ground, India have won seven, five have been drawn and only one has been won by the away side. The solitary defeat came in the first ever Test at the ground when West Indies won in 1994. India are unbeaten in the last 12 Tests played there (W7, D5).

There have been 25 centuries scored across the 13 Tests. The highest individual score was 165, made by Shikhar Dhawan for India against Australia in 2012/13.

The average first innings score at this venue in 13 Tests is 355. A century to made in this upcoming Test is a solid bet.

Rohit takes charge

The Indian Test side enter a new chapter with Rohit Sharma taking charge as captain under relatively new head coach Rahul Dravid. As many will be understandably distracted by Virat Kohli in the batting markets, don’t lose track of Rohit. The opening batter has got to grips with Test cricket now and can never be ignored.

India extended their home dominance with a Test series win over New Zealand and then sustained a surprise series defeat away in South Africa. That defeat was the last series under Virat Kohli as skipper.

Cheteshwar Pujara and Ajinkya Rahane have not been selected, so there will be a new look to the batting order. The selectors will have to choose two of Shubman Gill, Shreyas Iyer or Hanuma Vihari.

India hot favourites

Understandably, with Sri Lanka never having won a Test in 20 attempts in India, the home nation are prohibitively short in the markets. The only value is in Sri Lanka to cause a shock. That would be a fanciful punt.

India have only lost one Test at home in the last five years. That defeat came against England last February in Chennai on a pitch that was uncharacteristically unhelpful to spin.

During that five-year period India have won 15 Tests. They’ve seen off Australia, England, West Indies, South Africa and New Zealand. And with all due respect to Sri Lanka, they provide less of a challenge.

On the basis that India are expected to dominate, all potential bets are with the home side.

Can King Kohli join elite list in 100th Test?

Forget everyone else, this is Virat Kohli’s match. The India great will become the 71st ever player to make it to 100 Test caps in Mohali. He’s the 12th Indian to reach the landmark.

The 33-year-old had earned his maiden Test cap in 2011 at Sabina Park, Jamaica, against West Indies.

With 27 centuries under his belt, the emotional money will be behind Kohli to succeed again. But he’s been without a hundred in his last 15 Tests.

All players have favourite opponents and Sri Lanka could provide the former captain with the springboard back to top form. He’s played nine matches against The Lions, scoring 1004 runs at 77.23. He has scored three centuries.

His last three innings against Sri Lanka produced returns of 213, 243 and 50 on their last visit to India in late 2017.

Virat also needs 38 more to become the sixth Indian batter to score 8,000 Test runs.

It wouldn’t be any surprise to see him mark his landmark with a 28th Test century. If he does so, he will join an elite list that marked the occasion with a century.

Colin Cowdrey (England) The first batter to score a 100 in his 100th Test match – against Australia at Edgbaston, 1968.
Javed Miandad (Pakistan) 145 against India in Lahore, 1989.
Gordon Greenidge (West Indies) 149 versus England in Antigua, 1990.
Alec Stewart (England) 105 against West Indies at Old Trafford, 2000.
Inzamam Ul Haq (Pakistan) 184 against India in Bengaluru, 2005.
Ricky Ponting (Australia) Scored a ton in each innings against South Africa at Sydney Cricket Ground, 2006.
Graeme Smith (South Africa) 113 against England at The Oval, 2012.
Hashim Amla (South Africa) 134 against Sri Lanka in Johannesburg, 2017.
Joe Root (England) 218 against India in Chennai, 2021.

Ravichandran Ashwin will be licking his lips

Ravi Ashwin is returning from an unknown injury sustained during the one-day series against South Africa. He was rested for the recent one-day series against West Indies and Sri Lanka.

Despite his return to the white ball setup, Ashwin’s record in home Tests is exceptional. He has taken 46 wickets in his last six home Tests against England and New Zealand. Although the Top Bowling markets are usually focussed on the first innings where spinners are generally less productive, that shouldn’t put you off backing Ashwin to lead the attack.

Can Sri Lanka compete?

Sri Lanka are on a six-Test unbeaten run, including three straight wins. The tourists are without Ramesh Mendis, who was Player of the series against West Indies with 18 wickets. Lasith Embuldeniya is the spi+nner to fill the void.

Angelo Mathews is making his last Test tour of India and needs 43 runs to make him the 10th player to amass 1,000 runs in this contest. He doesn’t arrive with positive form behind him.

The tourists will be looking to their openers to get them off to a good start. Dimuth Karunaratne has scored at least 42 in seven of his last eight innings while Lahiru Thirimanne has scored at least 39 in eight of his last ten knocks.

India Squad: Rohit Sharma (captain), Priyank Panchal, Mayank Agarwal, Virat Kohli, Shreya0s Iyer, Hanuma Vihari, Shubhman Gill, Rishabh Pant (wk), KS Bharath (wicketkeeper), Ravindra Jadeja, Jayant Yadav, Ravichandran Ashwin, Kuldeep Yadav, Sourabh Kumar, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah.

Sri Lanka Squad: Dimuth Karunaratne (captain), Pathum Nissanka, Lahiru Thirimanne, Dhananjaya de Silva, Kusal Mendis, Angelo Mathews, Dinesh Chandimal, Charith Asalanka, Niroshan Dickwella (wk), Chamika Karunaratne, Lahiru Kumara, Suranga Lakmal, Dushmantha Chameera, Vishwa Fernando, Jeffrey Vandersay, Praveen Jayawickrama, Lasith Embuldeniya.

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